Why is Russia’s population (relatively) small and declining. This looked very realistic then. La population de la Russie était de 148.273.746 millions d'habitants début 1991 et était tombée à 141.903.979 millions d'habitants en 2009. The fall will make maintaining tax revenues and sustaining the pension system challenging for Russia, something that prompted the government to raise the retirement age effective this year. Russie (Fédération Russe) - 2050. This could explain why the OECD figures diverge so much from Rosstat's numbers, as the latter only tallies people leaving Russia. Population: 135,824,486. Les projections démographiques des experts de l’ONU estiment que la population russe va se réduire de 20 millions de personnes d’ici 2050, pour passer de 146,8 à 123 millions d’habitants (sans compter la Crimée). Vous bénéficiez d'un droit d'accès et de rectification de vos données personnelles, ainsi que celui d'en demander l'effacement dans les limites prévues par la loi. I - La baisse de la population russe A l'horizon 2050, selon le scénario le plus dramatique, la population du pays pourrait décroître de 47%, pour atteindre à cette date 77,2 millions d'individus. While a perusal of various data sets suggests that fears of Russia's imminent demographic demise might be exaggerated, the country's planners still have much work to do to arrest the decline. The UN’s forecast estimates the population in 2050 dropping to 132 million. C’est typiquement le genre de nouvelles que les télévisions publiques ont horreur de diffuser. If using any of Russia Beyond's content, partly or in full, always provide an active hyperlink to the original material. La Russie s’apprête à perdre annuellement 400 000 individus à partir de 2027. In this case, say, the UK will overtake us in terms of population size,” said Sergei Shulgin, a demographics expert and economist at the Presidential Academy. If in 1990 1.9 million children were born in Russia, in 1997 there were only 1.2 million babies, said Andrey Korotaev of the Higher School of Economics. L'opposition à nouveau dans la rue au Bélarus. This forecast, however, which was made as part of collaboration between the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, the Federal Statistics Service, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, is not the gloomiest. Prise en tenailles entre un taux de mortalité qui ne cesse de croître (14,7 ‰) et une natalité qui n'en finit pas de chuter (8,4 ‰), la Russie connaît, depuis les années 1990, un net déclin de sa population – passée de 147,8 millions en 1989 à 145 millions en 2001. The decline slowed considerably in the late 2000s, and in 2009 Russia recorded population growth for the first time in 15 years, adding 23,300. This is a growth by 20.4 percent in 59 years. We've got more than 1,8 million followers on Facebook. Elles seront également utilisées sous réserve des options souscrites, à des fins de ciblage publicitaire. The potential for ethnic tensions notwithstanding, the Russian government has few options but to attract more immigrants to offset its impending population decline. Formula: (([Population ages 0-15] + [Population ages 65-plus]) ÷ [Population ages 16-64]) × 100 NOTE: Dependency Ratio does not take into account labor force participation rates by age group. In tracking Russia's historical and current population data, there is little discrepancy between the Rosstat and U.N. figures, but there is a far larger gap between Rosstat and the OECD regarding Russian emigration to specific countries like the United States and Germany. 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 135,824,486 Population. By 2050, Poland and Ukraine with some NATO support would probably have the economic and military might to resist a conventional Russian attack. This number has grown in Russia since the mid-1990s, and reached its historical maximum for the last 15 years, but then started to decline a few years ago, according to data presented by demographic expert and economist Mikhail Denisenko in the Carnegie Foundation’s magazine. But due to the disparities between population projections, and to Moscow's efforts to mitigate its decline, the true scale of the demographic threat facing Russia is unknown. Sources - What is a population pyramid? However, to increase the aggregate birth rate to 1.9 - 2, and to keep the population around its current size, will be “remarkable” and a really “tough task.” It requires investments comparable to that of the entire “Demography” project, said Shulgin. Get the week's best stories straight to your inbox. Rosstat, too, has noted the increased brain drain: In 2017, 22 percent of emigrants from Russia possessed advanced degrees, up 5 percent from 2012. Les informations recueillies sont destinées à CCM Benchmark Group pour vous assurer l'envoi de votre newsletter. All rights reserved. In addition to efforts to increase the birth rate, improving life expectancy is another important part of halting the population decline. The decline is rooted in the 1990s. Russian Federation - 2050. Mais ce flux a tendance à s’étioler à cause de la crise économique en Russie et des quotas instaurés par les autorités sous la pression de mouvements xénophobes. Elle développe des études sur l'Union européenne et ses politiques et en promeut le contenu en France, en Europe et à l'étranger. But while the gap between the Russian and international numbers is simply too large to suggest that the difference consists of Russians migrating from third countries to the likes of the United States or Germany, it is likely an exaggeration to claim that the true rate of emigration is six times as high as the Rosstat figures; instead, the reality is somewhere in between. And if the number of potential mothers has decreased then it’s nearly impossible to significantly improve the situation. Suivez la Fondation Robert Schuman et retrouvez toutes nos publications sur : Créée en 1991 et reconnue d'utilité publique, la Fondation Robert Schuman est le principal centre de recherches français sur l'Europe. Légende : Atlas de la mondialisation dossier spécial Russie - Presses de Sciences Po, 2010. Azerbaïdjan, du triomphe à la coexistence? That's because Rosstat only counts Russians who officially cancel their registration in their homeland — something that most emigrants do not do. In 2018, the UN claimed that Russia's population could fall to 132 million by 2050. La baisse naturelle de la population n’est qu’en partie compensée (à 85,7%) par l’afflux de migrants. One key reason is a ‘war echo’. Faced with the results of drastic economic reforms launched by the Gaidar government, Russians did not hurry to have children. Les conséquences du phénomène sur l’économie russe ne sont pas réjouissantes. Il est en 2010 de 1,41 enfant par femme. Mot(s) -clé(s) : espérance de vie, natalité - fécondité, sexe. The forecast expects the number of children per woman to be 1.7, which is comparable to many developed countries. prompted the government to raise the retirement age. The biggest decrease in 2002 with -0.46%. La Fondation est présidée par M. Jean-Dominique Giuliani. If we lose all the achievements of the last 15 years and return to the birth and death rates of that period, then we can easily decline to 110 million, and possibly even 100 million by the end of the century. Démographie russe, 1950-2050. Les lois votées en 2012 contre «la propagande de l’homosexualité» sont justifiées en partie parce que cette dernière «limite la croissance de la population». Les inégalités se creusent, avec des régions qui se vident à un rythme croissant tandis qu’une poignée de grands centres urbains affichent une croissance – près de 20% de la population s’agglutinent dans la capitale. Les étendues du nord et de l’est affichent des densités de population parmi les plus faibles du monde (2,7 habitants au km2) et continuent à se dépeupler. Will the British outnumber the Russians by the end of the century? Cette mesure prend d’ailleurs fin l’année prochaine en raison du déficit budgétaire, et avec elles de nombreuses aides sociales. Soutenir la fondation Robert Schuman, c'est lui permettre de rebondir, de trouver la force et les idées de s'adapter aux nouveaux défis. Turquie et Russie dessinent le monde de demain, La Russie s’apprête à perdre 20 millions d’habitants d’ici au milieu du siècle. Vous pouvez également à tout moment revoir vos options en matière de ciblage. The primary sources for Russia's demographic data are the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), a Russian government agency, and international bodies such as the United Nations and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. This could have significant geopolitical implications, impacting everything from the country's economy to its military power to its ability to project influence around the world — especially in its near abroad. The continuation of such a program will be an important prerequisite for a further improvement in the demographic situation. (Rosstat does not publish such projections.) Auteur : FNSP. Population: 135,824,486. But given the incongruous data sets, it's difficult to project a precise timeline for Russia's downward demographic trend. 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 135,824,486 Population. Ce qui est moins, toutefois, qu’entre 1995 et 2005 – elle perdait alors le double. La cause principale est la baisse du nombre de naissances. Avec 15 millions d'habitants en moins, la Russie est le deuxième pays qui connaîtra la plus forte baisse de sa population. Unique en son genre, avec ses 200 000 abonnés et ses éditions en 5 langues (français, anglais, allemand, espagnol et polonais) If it won’t be possible to increase the number of potential mothers in the short-term, it is possible to give them incentives to have more children. Le Kremlin a tenté de remédier à la crise démographique par des mesures de nature très variée. To empower members to confidently understand and navigate a continuously changing and complex global environment. Instead, these "persons holding a Russian nationality arriving from anywhere" could, for example, be Russian citizens who emigrated from France to Germany. From great power competition with the United States to internal unrest, Moscow has plenty of issues to deal with, but another problem looms ominously on the horizon: demographic change. Although the UN projects a population fo about 132 million in 2050. Population growth in Russia From 1960 to 2019 the population of Russia increased from 119.90 million to 144.37 million people. La principale raison de la crise démographique se trouve dans un faible taux de natalité (107 400 naissances de moins en glissement annuel), croisé avec une mortalité plus élevée qu’en Europe, bien que la situation s’améliore rapidement sur ce plan. So what is causing Russia’s decline? La démographie russe : Les chiffres du déclin. Indeed, certain destination countries, including the United States, have reported Russian immigration figures as many as six times as high as those reported by Rosstat. By 1993, the number of newborns dropped almost two-fold compared to the late 1980s. Inscrivez-vous et recevez les newsletters de votre choix. See also the number of migrants for this country. Le programme gouvernemental de repeuplement de l’Extrême-Orient russe, lancé en 2007, n’a pas porté ses fruits. Un trou dans la pyramide des âges lors des années 90 accélère la dénatalité. Japon . Sources : Federal State Statistics Service, www.gsk.ru ; United Nations, Population Division. Another factor to consider is the Kremlin's efforts to offset its population decline and emigration trends. In the population forecast presented at the Gaidar Forum, this parameter is estimated to be higher in 2050 – 80 years. demographic expert and economist Mikhail Denisenko in the Carnegie Foundation’s magazine, Russia seeks to further decrease abortion rates, Birth rate in Russia creeps up despite economic crisis. Chaque année, entre 200 et 300 000 étrangers s’installent en Russie, venant en très grande majorité des anciennes républiques soviétiques. elle apporte jusqu'à vous, depuis 15 ans, un condensé de l'actualité européenne, plus nécessaire aujourd'hui que jamais. Russia's demographic outlook will play a major role in shaping the country both internally and internationally in the coming decades. - Keywords: demography, population pyramid, age pyramid, aging, retirement, Russian Federation, 2050. This, in turn, could foment more ethnic tensions in the country and increase political instability, as evidenced by recent protests against migration in Moscow and Russian Far Eastern cities like Yakutsk. In recent years, life expectancy has increased in Russia at a remarkable pace, although from a low level. And yet, even with the aggregate birth rate at the level of 1.7, and with the increased life expectancy, the size of Russia’s population will still greatly depend on migration – six million out the expected 137 million will be migrants. According to the latest demographic forecast, Russia’s population will decrease by almost 10 million by 2050. Even if today the birth rate in Russia would rise to some phenomenal number – two children per woman – the number of births would decline due to the simple model called ‘potential of demographic growth’,” said Sergei Scherbov, head of the research project, when presenting the forecast. From a geopolitical perspective, a weakened economy and smaller population will also compromise Russia's ability to project military power and political influence, as the country will lag behind countries that are growing in population and competing for influence in the region, including great power competitors China and the United States and even smaller powers like Turkey and Iran. And even that is not the worst scenario. “The number of births is falling because it is determined by age structure. With a current growth rate of -0.05%, it’s predicted that Russia’s population will drop to around 132 million by 2050—a decrease of almost 12 million people. According to the latest demographic forecast, Russia’s population will decrease by almost 10 million by 2050. To rectify the situation the state has launched a  special national project called “Demography” with a budget of more than USD 40 billion. Les pays qui perdront des habitants d'ici 2050. Les mesures gouvernementales en faveur des familles ne parviennent pas à enrayer le phénomène. So while the exact extent of Russia's demographic decline and changing ethnic makeup is difficult to predict, there is little doubt it will give Moscow great cause for concern in the long term. It is primarily a continuation of state programs from the mid-2000s, and its main feature was a multiple-child allowance introduced in 2007. According to the Russian business daily Kommersant, the Russian government plans to attract 5 million to 10 million migrants from neighboring countries with large Russian-speaking populations, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Moldova, to offset Russia's population decline over the next six years. Russia should Negotiate peace with Ukraine, get more foreign investment, fix the corruption . Le taux de fécondité des Russes baisse depuis plusieurs années. La Russie compte aujourd’hui 17 000 individus de moins qu’en janvier 2017, indiquaient hier les statistiques officielles (RosStat). From 65 years in 2003, it grew to 73 years as of last year. Un scénario plus optimiste permettrait de limiter l'érosion démographique à une perte de 30%, laissant à la Russie une population de 101,9 millions d'habitant en 2050 . Le nombre de personnes dépassant les 70 ans va conduire à une contraction de 10% de la population active d’ici 2030, d’après une étude de la Haute école d’économie. Population Pays 2050 . Plus ciblé, le «Capital maternel» mis en place en 2008 (7300 francs versés aux familles à chaque enfant à partir du second) aurait stimulé les naissances de second enfant mais pas au-delà. In any case, the size of Russia’s population will greatly depend on migration. La natalité n’est forte que dans les régions musulmanes du Caucase. Why is the number of Russians destined for decline? En retrait de près de 11%, le nombre de ses habitants passera de 142 millions à environ 127 millions en 2050 soit une diminution progressive sur quarante ans. The UN warned in 2005 that Russia's then population of about 143 million could fall by a third by 2050, if trends did not improve. The authors of the latest demographic report claim that under current conditions the Russian population will continue to decline. Elle provoque, enrichit et stimule le débat européen par ses recherches, ses publications et l'organisation de conférences. Les projections démographiques des experts de l’ONU estiment que la population russe va se réduire de 20 millions de personnes d’ici 2050, pour passer de 146,8 à 123 millions d’habitants (sans compter la Crimée). Two children per woman (this parameter is called ‘aggregate birth rate’ and is of key importance for demographic experts) is considered to be a rate sufficient for a population’s replacement, but even this is not enough for Russia. The continued fall in population will undermine Russia's economic position, particularly as the people most likely to leave are young, educated professionals in sectors like technology and the military. La réduction du nombre de Russes va diamétralement à l’encontre du message de redressement de la nation que veut incarner Vladimir Poutine. Type : Diagrammes. The change will also alter Russia's demographic composition, as migrants from faster-growing countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia are likely to migrate to Russia in greater numbers to make up for the population loss. Naturally, larger emigration numbers would accelerate the population decline. Because of emigration and low birth rates, Russia's population is projected to decline precipitously in the next few decades. Extrait de : Atlas de la mondialisation - Presses de Sciences Po. Les immigrés représentent déjà 12% de la population russe, selon le démographe de la Haute école d’économie Vladimir Kozlov. 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The problem of Russia’s “age structure” mainly concerns the number of women of childbearing age (15-49 years old). While it may seem that WWII is in the distant past, the devastating loss of life the Soviet Union took during those years created a “hole” in the countries … A picture taken on March 30, 2017 shows a woman entering a building of Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) in Moscow. Russia’s population could shrink to about 110 million in 2050. La Russie s’apprête à perdre annuellement 400 000 individus à partir de 2027. When it comes to projections for Russia's overall population, the country is currently projected to lose about 8 percent of its population by 2050 according to the United Nations. Directeur de la publication : Pascale JOANNIN. Copyright © Stratfor Enterprises, LLC. Click here to find out more. As a result, the number of Russians emigrating from the country is much higher than the numbers Russia has officially reported, according to a study that the independent media outlet Proekt released in January, citing OECD data. The extent to which the Russian population will decline will have significant implications for Moscow. En savoir plus sur notre politique de confidentialité. The country's current plan to attract at least 5 million migrants in just over five years, however, is far more ambitious. The exact rate of Russia's demographic decline isn't known, but there's no question that the country is facing a population problem. La Russie perdra plus de 15 millions d'habitants d'ici 2050. Independent Strategic Analysis | Objective Geopolitical Insights. À cela s’ajoute une extrême disparité régionale. The looming population decline will challenge Moscow's ability to sustain its economic and military power, just as the changing ethnic balance in Russia will complicate Kremlin efforts to manage social and political instability. Ces dernières années, les dépenses prioritaires du Kremlin sont allées vers l’armée et la sécurité au détriment de la santé et de l’éducation. ... Population en 2050 : 95,2 millions d'habitants . When it comes to projections for Russia's overall population, the country is currently projected to lose about 8 percent of its population by 2050 according to the United Nations. (Rosstat does not publish such projections.) Naturally, larger emigration numbers would accelerate the population decline. Crucially, however, the Proekt report cited OECD migration data published by the destination countries, which doesn't necessarily indicate that incoming Russians actually arrived from Russia. By 2024, it could reach 78; at least that is Putin’s target for the government. Informations, contact Presse, demandes spécifiques : http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1273/, La Fondation Robert Schuman dans les médias. Indeed, in 2018, the Russian population has decreased for the first time in almost a decade, according to the information provided by the state. Ce qui est moins, toutefois, qu’entre 1995 et 2005 – elle perdait alors le double. Dans les zones rurales, la mortalité a dépassé de 73 900 le nombre de naissance en 2016. To rectify the situation the state launched a special national project called “Demography”. Voir la liste. Experts, however, say this is a “quite optimistic” forecast, and that the drop will in fact be even more dramatic. This website uses cookies. Le rythme de décroissance de la population a quadruplé par rapport à la même période de 2016. The demographic forecast presented at the Gaidar Forum, a huge gathering of experts named after the head of the first post-Soviet government, estimated Russia’s population in 2050 as dropping to around 137 million from current 146 million. The highest increase in Russia was recorded in 1962 with 1.12%. The government's efforts to attract migrants, as well as it bid to encourage more births, managed to hold the population trend steady in recent years, but 2018 was the first year since 2008 in which Russia's population dropped in absolute terms, falling by 93,500 to 148.8 million people. Selon Alexeï Rakcha, démographe à RosStat, le taux de natalité va baisser au moins jusqu’en 2030 à cause du faible nombre de femmes nées dans les années 90. The problem of declining population in Russia was identified by Russian and international experts long ago and all forecasts gave a negative prognosis: the decline of population … Des dizaines de villages sont rayés de la carte chaque année quand leurs derniers habitants, en moyenne très âgés, décèdent. However, it’s only 1.62 today and to increase it to 1.7 (the government’s target too) will not be an easy task. By 1993, the number of newborns dropped almost two-fold compared to the late 1980s. According to Shulgin this program was successful, and combined with a positive demographic wave, we got an increase in birth rates in Russia in the 2000s. “The pessimistic trajectory that we saw 10 years ago gave us 120 million people by 2050.